Risk-based flood zoning employing expected annual damages: the Chenab River case study   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Muhammad Atiq Ur Rehman Tariq 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(8):1957-1966

Flooding proves to be the most devastating and annihilating natural hazard in Pakistan. Existing flood management strategies are riveted primarily to the structural measures that contribute limited loss reduction capability at the national level. Non-structural measures are not part of regular practices, as the adopted design standards, which are probabilistic in nature, are unable to assess their feasibilities. An improved risk-based assessment using expected annual damages (EAD) is introduced in this article for the evaluation of combined impacts. EAD treat the probabilistic nature of losses and provide an extended visualization of risk distributions in the form of damage curves and expected annual damages distribution maps. The Chenab River floodplain was selected to study the coalesced response of embankments and flood zoning, preliminary in economic terms. In this regard, the impacts of all likely floods are considered instead of the traditional focus on a single design flood. Damage curves and maps are compiled using estimated losses and probabilities of all floods. Flood zoning for agricultural land is performed. The results support choosing a multidirectional conjunctive approach that considers multiple measures to reduce flood losses. These results can be used as a vital input for the decision-making process.  相似文献   

Improving the level of seismic hazard parameters in Saudi Arabia using earthquake location   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Abdullah M. Al-Amri  Arthur J. Rodgers  Tariq A. Al-Khalifah 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2008,1(1):1-15

Saudi Arabia is characterized as largely aseismic; however, the tectonic plate boundaries that surround it are very active. To improve characterization of seismicity and ground motion hazard, the Saudi Arabian Digital Seismic Network (SANDSN) was installed in 1998 and continues to be operated by the Saudi Geological Survey (SGS) and King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology (KACST). This article describes research performed to improve seismic hazard parameters using earthquake location and magnitude calibration of the high-quality SANDSN data. The SANDSN consists of 38 seismic stations, 27 broadband, and 11 short period. All data are telemetered in real time to a central facility at KACST in Riyadh. The SANDSN stations show low background noise levels and have good signal detection capabilities; however, some stations show cultural noise at frequencies above 1.0 Hz. We assessed the SANDSN event location capabilities by comparing KACST locations with well-determined locations derived from ground truth or global observations. While a clear location bias exists when using the global average iasp91 earth model, the locations can be improved by using regional models optimized for different tectonic source regions. The article presents detailed analysis of some events and Dead Sea explosions where we found gross errors in estimated locations. New velocity models we calculated that should improve estimated locations of regional events in three specific regions include (1) Gulf of Aqabah—Dead Sea region, (2) Arabian Shield, and (3) Arabian Platform. Recently, these models were applied to the SANDSN to improve local and teleseismic event locations and to develop an accurate magnitude scale for Saudi Arabia. The Zagros Thrust presents the most seismic hazard to eastern Saudi Arabia because of the frequent occurrence of earthquakes. Although these events are 200 km or further from the Arabian coast, wave propagation through sedimentary structure of the Gulf causes long-duration ground motions for periods between 3 and 10 s. Such ground motions could excite response in large engineered structures (e.g., tall buildings and long bridges) such as was experienced after the November 22, 2005 Qeshm Island earthquake off the southern coast of Iran.  相似文献   

A new method of determining the inclination angle in interacting binaries     

Tariq Shahbaz 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,298(1):153-165

We describe a method of determining the system parameters in non-eclipsing interacting binaries. We find that the extent to which an observer sees the shape of the Roche lobe of the secondary star governs the amount of distortion of the absorption-line profiles. The width and degree of asymmetry of the phase-resolved absorption-line profiles show a characteristic shape, which depends primarily on the binary inclination and gravity darkening exponent. We show that, in principle, by obtaining high spectral and time resolution spectra of quiescent cataclysmic variables or low-mass X-ray binaries in which the mass-losing star is visible, fitting the shape of absorption-line profiles will allow one to determine not only the mass function of the binary, but also the binary inclination and hence the mass of the binary components.  相似文献   

Recent Sea Level and Sea Surface Temperature Changes Along the Maldives Coast     

O. P. Singh  Tariq Masood Ali Khan  Fahmida Aktar  Majajul Alam Sarker 《Marine Geodesy》2001,24(4):209-218

Maldives, a South Asian small island nation in the northern part of the Indian Ocean is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of Sea Level Rise (SLR) due to its low altitude from the mean sea level. This artricle attempts to estimate the recent rates of SLR in Maldives during different seasons of the year with the help of existing tidal data recorded in the Maldives coast. Corresponding Sea Surface Temperature (SST) trends, utilizing reliable satellite climatology, have also been obtained. The relationships between the SST and mean sea level have been comprehensively investigated. Results show that recent sea level trends in the Maldives coast are very high. At Male, the capital of the Republic of Maldives, the rising rates of Mean Tidal Level (MTL) are: 8.5, 7.6, and 5.8 mm/year during the postmonsoon (October-December), Premonsoon (March-May) and southwest monsoon (June-September) seasons respectively. At Gan, a station very close to the equator, the increasing rate of MTL is maximum during the period from June to September (which is 6.2 mm/year). These rising trends in MTL along the Maldives coast are certainly alarming for this small developing island nation, which is hardly one meter above the mean sea level. Thus there is a need for careful monitoring of future sea level changes in the Maldives coast. The trends presented are based on the available time-series of MTL for the Maldives coast, which are rather short. These trends need not necessarily reflect the long-term scenario. SST in the Maldives coast has also registered significant increasing trend during the period from June to September. There are large seasonal variations in the SST trends at Gan but SST and MTL trends at Male are consistently increasing during all the seasons and the rising rates are very high. The interannual mode of variation is prominent both in SST as well as MTL. Annual profile of MTL along the Maldives coast is bimodal, having two maxima during April and July. The April Mode is by far the dominant one. The SST appears to be the main factor governing the sea level variations along the Maldives coast. The influence of SST and sea level is more near the equatorial region (i.e., at Gan). There is lag of about two months for the maximum influence of SST on the sea level. The correlation coefficient between the smoothed SST and mean tidal level at Gan with lag of two months is as high as ~ +0.8, which is highly significant. The corresponding correlation coefficients at Male with the lags of one and two months are +0.5 and +0.3, respectively. Thus, the important finding of the present work for the Maldives coast is the dominance of SST factor in sea level variation, especially near the region close to the equator.  相似文献   

Sea Level Variations and Geomorphological Changes in the Coastal Belt of Pakistan     

Tariq Masood Ali Khan  D. A. Razzaq  Qamar-Uz-Zaman Chaudhry  Dewan Abdul Quadir  Anwarul Kabir  Majajul Alam Sarker 《Marine Geodesy》2002,25(1):159-174

The UNEP in its regional seas program in 1989 has included Pakistan in a group of countries which are vulnerable to the impact of rising sea level. If the present trend of sea level rise (SLR) at Karachi continues, in the next 50 years the sea level rise along the Pakistan Coast will be 50 mm (5 cm). Since the rising rates of sea level at Karachi are within the global range of 1-2 mm/year, the trends may be treated as eustatic SLR. Historical air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) data of Karachi also show an increasing pattern and an increasing trend of about 0.67°C has been registered in the air temperature over the last 35 years, whereas the mean SST in the coastal waters of Karachi has also registered an increasing trend of about 0.3°C in a decade. Sindh coastal zone is more vulnerable to sea level rise than Baluchistan coast, as uplifting of the coast by about 1-2 mm/year due to subduction of Indian Ocean plate is a characteristic of Baluchistan coast. Within the Indus deltaic creek system, the area nearby Karachi is more vulnerable to coastal erosion and accretion than the other deltaic region, mainly due to human activities together with natural phenomena such as wave action, strong tidal currents, and rise in sea level. Therefore, The present article deals mainly with the study of dynamical processes such as erosion and accretion associated with sea level variations along the Karachi coast and surrounding Indus deltaic coastline. The probable beach erosion in a decade along the sandy beaches of Karachi has been estimated. The estimates show that 1.1 mm/year rise in sea level causes a horizontal beach loss of 110 mm per year. Therefore, coast eroded with rise in sea level at Karachi and surrounding sandy beaches would be 1.1 m during a period of next 10 years. The northwestern part of Indus delta, especially the Gizri and Phitti creeks and surrounding islands, are most unstable. Historical satellite images are used to analyze the complex pattern of sediment movements, the change in shape of coastline, and associated erosion and accretion patterns in Bundal and Buddo Islands. The significant changes in land erosion and accretion areas at Bundal and Buddo Islands are evident and appear prominently in the images. A very high rate of accretion of sediments in the northwestern part of Buddo Island has been noticed. In the southwest monsoon season the wave breaking direction in both these islands is such that the movement of littoral drift is towards west. Erosion is also taking place in the northeastern and southern part of Bundal Island. The erosion in the south is probably due to strong wave activities and in the northeast is due to strong tidal currents and seawater intrusion. Accretion takes place at the northwest and western parts of Bundal Island. By using the slope of Indus delta, sea encroachment and the land area inundation with rising sea level of 1 m and 2 m have also been estimated.  相似文献   

Establishing a baseline to evaluate future impacts to groundwater resources in North Kuwait     

Amitabha Mukhopadhyay  Adnan Akber  Tariq Rashed  Vincent Kotwicki  Saif Uddin  Abdullah Bushehri 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(4):324

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Satellite and ground-based remote sensing of aerosols during intense haze event of October 2013 over lahore,Pakistan     

Salman Tariq  ul-Haq Zia  Muhammad Ali 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(1):25-33

Due to increase in population and economic development, the mega-cities are facing increased haze events which are causing important effects on the regional environment and climate. In order to understand these effects, we require an in-depth knowledge of optical and physical properties of aerosols in intense haze conditions. In this paper an effort has been made to analyze the microphysical and optical properties of aerosols during intense haze event over mega-city of Lahore by using remote sensing data obtained from satellites (Terra/Aqua Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO)) and ground based instrument (AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET)) during 6-14 October 2013. The instantaneous highest value of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is observed to be 3.70 on 9 October 2013 followed by 3.12 on 8 October 2013. The primary cause of such high values is large scale crop residue burning and urban-industrial emissions in the study region. AERONET observations show daily mean AOD of 2.36 which is eight times higher than the observed values on normal day. The observed fine mode volume concentration is more than 1.5 times greater than the coarse mode volume concentration on the high aerosol burden day. We also find high values (~0.95) of Single Scattering Albedo (SSA) on 9 October 2013. Scatter-plot between AOD (500 nm) and Angstrom exponent (440-870 nm) reveals that biomass burning/urban-industrial aerosols are the dominant aerosol type on the heavy aerosol loading day over Lahore. MODIS fire activity image suggests that the areas in the southeast of Lahore across the border with India are dominated by biomass burning activities. A Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model backward trajectory showed that the winds at 1000 m above the ground are responsible for transport from southeast region of biomass burning to Lahore. CALIPSO derived sub-types of aerosols with vertical profile taken on 10 October 2013 segregates the wide spread aerosol burden as smoke, polluted continental and dust aerosols.  相似文献   

Emission quantification of refrigerant CFCs,HCFCs and HFCs in megacity Lahore (Pakistan) and contributed ODPs and GWPs     

Zia Ul-Haq  Muhammad Ali  Syeda Adila Batool  Salman Tariq  Zarmina Qayyum 《Journal of Earth System Science》2016,125(6):1273-1284

An integrated assessment of emissions of some important refrigerant ozone depleting substances (ODSs) (CFC-11, CFC-12, HCFC-141b and HFC-134a) and their contributed ozone depletion potentials (ODPs) and global warming potentials (GWPs) have been made in the megacity Lahore (Pakistan) for the period from 2005 to 2013. During the production of 6.488 million refrigerator units, the cumulative estimated emissions of CFC-11, CFC-12, HCFC-141b and HFC-134a were 129.7, 6.8, 1257 and 104 mega grams (1 Mg = 10⁶ grams). The estimated GWP (CO₂-eq) and ODP (CFC 11-eq) associated with production phase emissions of these four gases were 616.07, 73.52, 910.96, and 87.36 kilotonnes, and 129.7, 6.8, 139.4, and 0 tonnes, respectively. ODP of HFC-134a is considered to be zero. In addition, the repair and maintenance of 81.2 thousand units resulted in 10.8 Mg emissions of CFC-12 with 10.8 tonnes ODP(CFC 11-eq) and 117,802 tonnes GWP (CO₂-eq) that were higher than the HFC-134a emissions recorded at 4.3 Mg causing 4563 tonnes GWP(CO₂-eq). A decrease in ODP (CFC 11-eq) and GWP (CO₂-eq) at the rate of ?8.3% and ?8.2% per year is observed to be contributed by all the selected ODSs during the study period.  相似文献   

Seasonal and Interannual Sea Surface Temperature Variability in the Coastal Cities of Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal     

Tariq Masood Ali Khan  Dewan Abdul Quadir  Tad S. Murty  Majajul Alam Sarker 《Natural Hazards》2004,31(2):549-560

The sea surface temperature (SST) variations play a veryimportant role in the genesis and maintenance of meteorological and oceanographic processessuch as monsoon depressions and subsequent floods, large-scale sea level fluctuationsand genesis of tropical cyclones. Many low lying coastal regions of South Asia are adjacentto river deltas and have large population. The dense population, poor economy and severalother socio-economic factors make these areas most vulnerable to the impact of climate change.Variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is importantas the duration and intensity of SST provide the basis for studies related to climatic changescenario. In this study an attempt has been made to estimate the recent SST trends in the coastalwaters of some cities, which lie on the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. The annual andinterannual variability has also been studied. The SST variations have then been linkedwith the El Nino and La Nina events.The NOAA-NASA Pathfinder Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) SST fields from 1985-1998, created in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory(JPL), USA are used in this study. Here the quality of data is an important factor toobtain reliable estimates of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) trends and other related parameters.However, this is not possible with the conventional type data, due to low quality as wellas sparse data in the region. Though the satellite based SST climatologies have shorterobservation lengths, they can provide reliable estimates of recent SST variability overa large oceanic areas with sparse or no data.Increasing trend of SST is observed throughout all theseasons in the northern Arabian Sea extending from Oman to Karachi and Mumbai and furthersouth to Salalah and Colombo. However, in coastal islands stations further south ofIndia such as at Colombo the increment is not significant. Though the increasing trend in SSTduring winter is not significant, nevertheless it shows the increasing influence of coldspells on this Island. An interesting situation has been observed in the Bay of Bengal. On anaverage, increasing trends in the annual SST were observed in Visakhaputnam. But at thestations located in the northeastern part of Bay of Bengal, namely Hiron Point and Cox'sBazar reverse conditions are observed. In the Southern Bay of Bengal variations in SST isnot significant which reflects in the SST analysis of Chennai and Port Blair stations. Locationof these stations at lower latitudes (near by equator) probably is the reason for this insignificantchange. It has been found that the interannual mode of SST variations dominate the linear SSTtrends which is characterized by the El Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO) scale cycle.  相似文献   

Changing land use/land cover patterns and growing human population in Wular catchment of Kashmir Valley,India     

Ganaie  Tariq Ahmad  Jamal  Saleha  Ahmad  Wani Suhail 《GeoJournal》2021,86(4):1589-1606

GeoJournal - The profound increase in human activities and the degrading scenario in fragile ecosystems of the western Himalayas like that of Wular Lake have highlighted the need to analyze the...  相似文献